Mauricio Tapia.
Course index

Chapter 06 / 14 · Work with judgment

Verify facts, inferences and recommendations

A defensible decision separates knowledge, interpretation and unresolved questions.

Reading: 3 min · Suggested practice: 15–25 min

By the end of this chapter

Produce traceable output and handle conflicting evidence without invented reconciliation.

In this chapter

Three kinds of claim

A fact is supported by identifiable evidence. An inference interprets evidence and may be reasonable without being confirmed. A recommendation proposes action. Separate them so “no reply” does not become “rejection” and then “close the opportunity” without review.

Facts have scope. “The CRM says won” establishes what the CRM records, not necessarily a valid order. Required evidence depends on the decision. An internal update may need an authorized email; a delivery commitment may require an order and operational approval.

An evidence chain

Connect claim, source, passage or record, date and scope. Check that the source exists, supports the claim and remains current. Accessible links may be irrelevant; accurate quotations may concern another period or unit.

Use explicit criteria for verified, insufficient and contradictory records. Do not treat model-reported confidence as a validated probability. Probabilities require evaluation against observed outcomes and an appropriate method.

Resolve disagreement

Check whether sources describe the same thing. Internal proposal approval and pending customer budget approval can coexist. For genuine disagreement, identify each source's authority and who can confirm state.

Do not always prefer the newest document. A later note may describe an intention without changing a formal agreement. Preserve both records and propose the smallest useful verification.

Numbers and coverage

Check totals, denominators, currency and dates. Use a spreadsheet or reproducible tool for calculations when available. Ensure all input records appear: accurate output with omitted cases remains defective.

Record the review result and owner. Important decisions require looking at the source rather than only the generated explanation. Mark approved, returned or pending with reasons.

Worked case

Fictional opportunity O-104 is marked won in an October 7 CRM record. An October 8 customer email says budget approval is pending. The report should expose the conflict. Confirmed sales cannot be established without checking the meaning of won and the evidence of approval.

Ask the account owner to confirm the order before including its amount in closed sales. Retain it in the discrepancy list rather than dropping it from analysis.

Practice instructions

Provide fact, source and date; a separate inference; a recommendation and its execution condition.
Flag conflicts without intuitive reconciliation.
Ensure each input ID appears in output or justified exclusions.
Do not present self-reported confidence as measured probability.

Your turn

Analyze “No reply in ten days, so they lost interest and we should discard the account.” Separate the claims and propose a check. Identify evidence that would justify a status change.

Show the commented solution

Ten days without reply is a fact if supported by records. Lost interest is an inference. Discarding the account is a recommendation needing additional commercial criteria. Confirm receipt, channel and owner. Explicit rejection or a properly fulfilled agreed closure rule could justify changing state.

Evaluate your work

  • Claims have defined scope.
  • Inferences are labeled.
  • Sources support claims.
  • Difficult records are not omitted.

Sources and technical reading

Sources support technical concepts. Business cases, rubrics and practice instructions are teaching proposals developed for this course.

Before moving on

Check your exercise against the criteria. Keep sources and your changes: they will support the final project.

Editorial review: September 29, 2026 · All case examples and figures are fictional. Study times are estimates.